Italy’s World Cup exit is far from an apocalypse
An impotent 0-0 draw against Sweden in Milan’s San Siro stadium on November 13th, following a 1-0 defeat in Stockholm three days before, meant that the impossible had happened. Italy’s four World Cup titles have only been surpassed by Brazil.
The more realistic causes for the Azzurri’s early World Cup exit are bad luck and poor management—though the biggest culprit on the latter charge is probably not the most obvious one. Italians have lumped most of the blame on Gian Piero Ventura, the team’s coach, whose 16-month tenure came to an end on November 15th when he was sacked by the Italian Football Federation (FIGC). From the start Mr Ventura, a dour 69-year-old whose only silverware has come in the third and fourth divisions, struggled to convince his countrymen that he was worthy of the top job. Italy has no shortage of decorated coaches, and among the pantheon that might be interested in leading the national side is Carlo Ancelotti, the only living manager to have won the Champions League three times (with two as a player for good measure).
Mr Ventura’s command came under greater scrutiny as it became clear that the Azzurri might struggle to qualify. There was nationwide scorn when he dropped the team’s most potent threat, 26-year-old winger Lorenzo Insigne, for Monday’s crucial game in Milan. So clear was the dissent among the troops that when the coach asked Mr De Rossi, a defensive substitute, to come on with his team in desperate need of a goal, the veteran player pointed at Mr Insigne and refused to leave the bench.
Yet a growing body of research suggests that managers have surprisingly little impact on how well a team plays. In a study of English professional clubs between 1973 and 2010, Stefan Szymanski, an economist at the University of Michigan, found that 90% of a side’s performance was determined by its wage bill, and that only a handful of managers consistently performed above their team’s expected level.
Read the full article in The Economist by J.T. here: https://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2017/11/teary-azzurri